“Universal International Venturesâ€: Dollar Index [DXY] could potentially hit 89 or 90 but don‘t count on it.
“Universal International Ventures†analysts believe that there is still some upside left to the current dollar rebound but they sounded a note of caution by suggesting that the trade has become overcrowded with too many investors getting bullish on the greenback too late.
One of the “Universal International Ventures†analysts mentioned that investors should take a closer look at exactly what the dollar is rallying against in terms of currencies. She suggested that the currencies against which the dollar had most appreciated were the British Pound, the Euro and the Japanese Yen. All three represented economies which were in the most economic pain. Against currencies like the Canadian and Australian Dollars and several Asian currencies like the Thai Baht, however, the greenback has weakened.
The case for appreciation against the euro and the pound appears obvious given the Greek debt crisis, the potential for Portugal and Spain to join the debt threat to the single currency and the apparent apathy gripping the UK political scene in the face of an imminent general election.
“Universal International Ventures†is adamant that the long term trend for the dollar remained firmly downwards but they concede that there will be instances when it will mount a counter-trend rally especially when fear returns to the equity and commodity markets.
The firm advised clients holding US dollars to brace themselves for the end of the rally by considering selling it against the Canadian Dollar or gold.